O Brasil e o Novo Conservadorismo

A duras penas o nosso país vem aprendendo a ser uma democracia de verdade. Democracia pressupõe alternância de poder no sentido de haver propostas substancialmente diferentes de gestão pública sucedendo-se ou, no mínimo, se apresentando recorrentemente ao escrutínio público.

71754-3Nos últimos 30 anos, o Brasil viveu a transitoriedade do governo Sarney (limitado em sua ação pela Constituinte e em lutar contra a hiperinflação), a abertura da economia ao mundo do governo Collor, a interinidade de Itamar (focado no plebiscito para escolha do regime de governo e o Plano Real), a gestão conservadora de FHC (privatizações, controle orçamentário, controle inflacionário, redução do custo do Estado) e o governo socialista e intervencionista de Lula e Dilma, com foco nas questões sociais, na criação dos chaebols brasileiros, extensa regulamentação da atividade produtiva e pouca preocupação na estabilidade macroeconômica, em particular nos últimos 5 anos. Em suma, foram três décadas onde a sociedade brasileira pode experimentar um pouco de tudo.

Basicamente, governos conservadores tendem a se preocupar com a estabilidade econômica, na redução da intervenção do governo na vida empresarial e no estímulo ao empreendedorismo, enquanto governos de esquerda (liberais, trabalhistas ou socialistas) dão foco nas políticas sociais, no intervencionismo econômico, regulamentação e aumento de tributos. O resultado é que governos conservadores acabam criando uma imagem antipática junto à população enquanto governos liberais acabam invariavelmente provocando uma crise econômica.

investimento-estrangeiroEm países desenvolvidos, as diferenças entre ambas as propostas de governo não são muito acentuadas e a alternância no poder tem impacto relativamente modesto no cotidiano das pessoas e na vida do país. No Brasil, (e na Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, etc), as posturas políticas são muito radicais e qualquer política inovadora gera um resultado desproporcionalmente grande. Um programa de alimentação como o bolsa família, que em países desenvolvidos tem impacto modesto na demanda, no Brasil alavanca 2 ou 3 pontos percentuais de crescimento do PIB. Em contrapartida, a não observância da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal levou o país do equilíbrio orçamentário a um déficit público gigantesco em questão de poucos anos, trazendo a depressão econômica, comprometendo anos de crescimento futuro e praticamente determinando a queda do governo Dilma.

Se o Brasil continuar exercitando a democracia, a tendência é que governos conservadores e de esquerda se alternem a cada 10 ou 12 anos, porem com diferenças de postura cada vez menores. A curto prazo, nós suspiraremos com uma nova medida de impacto a cada manhã. Não há dúvida que o governo Temer só terá 2017 para fazer todos os ajustes que precisam ser feitos se seu partido quiser disputar as eleições de 2018 com chance de sucesso. Como os ajustes são imensos e o espaço de manobra pequeno, a solução passará por:

  • Um extenso programa de privatizações a ser implantado a toque de caixa, provavelmente não pelo melhor modelo mas sim pelo mais rápido de ser executado
  • Privatizações permitem a redução do tamanho do estado, com todas as consequências benéficas que isso traz em uso de espaço, consumo de recursos, benefícios concedidos e previdência social
  • Aumento seletivo de impostos: dificilmente veremos um redesenho da estrutura fiscal do país com transferência da carga fiscal hoje centrada na produção e consumo para o lucro e a renda
  • Manutenção dos programas sociais mais significativos
  • Algum privilégio a programas que servem tanto para estimular a economia quanto para reduzir a pressão popular, como o de habitação popular
  • Flexibilização do máximo possível das leis trabalhistas, às custas de muita briga com os sindicatos, organizações e partidos de esquerda. É bem possível que as propostas de mudança na legislação trabalhista se tornem o boi de piranha de toda a gestão Temer
  • Taxas de juros reais positivas, atraindo capital financeiro internacional
  • Câmbio livre e com valorização do real, o que ajuda no controle da inflação e vem a reboque da atração de capital estrangeiro
  • Controle da moeda e da inflação, que chegou a níveis alarmantes
  • Alguma renegociação criativa da dívida pública federal, que aumentou de R$ 220 bilhões no primeiro ano do governo Lula para R$ 3 trilhões em julho deste ano, sendo que R$ 604 bilhões vencem nos próximos 12 meses. Considerando que a receita fiscal federal prevista para este ano é de R$ 1,22 trilhão, girar uma divida enorme como essa forçará a manutenção dos juros em patamar muito elevado (ou consumirá parte importante da arrecadação fiscal). De todos os legados do governo anterior, a explosão da divida interna é certamente o mais nefasto e difícil de ser equacionado
  • Nos últimos 12 meses, o Brasil teve um déficit em transações externas de U$ 29,4 bilhões. As reservas internacionais estão em U$ 377 bilhões mas a dívida externa atingiu U$ 332,6 bilhões (dados de junho). Por enquanto a situação das contas externas ainda é confortável mas se as exportações não aumentarem, em breve o país terá uma dívida maior do que suas reservas, uma situação que não é dramática mas sinaliza negativamente para a comunidade financeira internacional

É muita coisa para ser feita em pouco tempo. Momentos emocionantes nos aguardam. Para quem tem seu negócio imerso há 3 anos em profunda recessão, a ousadia e a coragem do governo em tomar medidas estruturais como essas são um alento e tanto.

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br

The model for developing Metropolitan Cities

O desenvolvimento das grandes metrópoles do mundo exige uma nova abordagem. De um lado elas são tipicamente as alavancadores das atividades econômicas de seus países. De outro, precisam atender a crescentes demandas por melhor qualidade de vida, menor consumo de recursos escassos (água, energia), melhor mobilidade, melhor atendimento às necessidades de todos os cidadãos e, como um todo, custo de vida mais baixo. Este artigo escrito pelo Managing Partner da The European House – Ambrosetti sintetiza um framework desenvolvido recentemente para projetos em fase de elaboração para diversas metrópoles europeias


The development of a local area—from a primarily economic-productive point-of-view—involves two macro-categories of goals:

  • fostering the growth of activities already present in the area;
  • attracting investment and resources from the outside, thus acting as a driver for new initiatives.

Every local system is called upon to be “smart”, flexible and fast, both in its strategic choices and its operational “infrastructure”. Therefore, what are needed are competitive strategies and solutions that guarantee continuity of action above and beyond the political-institutional mandates for governing the area.

Start-City_Figure-1_Conceptual-model-for-local-development-of-the-Metropolitan-CitiesSustainable development of any area is based, on one hand, on a “tactical” level by which is meant those elements that can be imitated easily by the competition and, on the other on a “strategic” level.

From this standpoint, the model developed by the Start City project for the local development of the Metropolitan Cities is based on a number of fundamental principles.

  • The Mission involves the formalization of the “raison d’être” of the area and its organization according to a given framework. This involves a clarification of the characteristics and basic specific aspects of the area (its unique characteristics and historical-cultural traditions) and the development model it wants to promote outside the local area. The Mission—clear, formalized and representative of the value available to the public and businesses—becomes an accreditation tool for the new metropolitan entity, including for channeling an image different from that of the former province.
  • The medium-to-long-term view indicates the direction to be taken and the future orientation of the local area regarding strategic guidelines for development, economic sectors and where to focus. Therefore, the vision represents the synthesis of what the local area intends becoming over a given time period and includes an element of “aspiration” to inspire and generate consensus and commitment among all area stakeholders. It must be differentiated and inclusive, and provide an economic-operational indication of the direction to be followed.
  • The vision must also include strategic goals. These goals must be: Limited in number, clear and easily measurable; progressive and coherent among themselves; oriented towards the shared strategic effort; monitored over time (to evaluate implementation status, measure progress and/or take any correction actions); be accountable (definition of responsibilities and roles).
  • The vision must take advantage of local competencies, i.e., specific local expertise in activities such as manufacturing, services, education, research, etc.; competencies are different from local patrimony (or assets) and become “distinctive” when their overall level (in terms of quality and intensity) is higher than that of competing areas. From this perspective, a local area has a limited number of distinctive competencies (normally no more than four or five).

For Metropolitan Cities to safeguard development, they must take on, in an efficient way, four key areas:

  • Local planning, which must be managed from a unified point-of-view and must aim to be coherent with the development vision and growth objectives, in managing urban sprawl and connecting the city center and its “outskirts”.
  • Urban renewal, based on the reuse/refunctionalization of existing assets, experimentation with social housing solutions, creation of economic-oriented landmarks, and increase in connectivity from a physical and non-material standpoint (thus attributing “centrality” to the site quality).
  • Support for innovation: to promote the development of know-how, attract talent and establish specialized production sites in the metropolitan area; the city must develop an integrated innovation “ecosystem”, create international-level poles of excellence and promote the creation of integrated supply chains in the area.
  • Mobility and public transport: also in light of national experiences and international best practices, management of mobility services in metropolitan areas should draw inspiration from “smartness” guidelines (”smart” mobility), integration on a metropolitan scale (including intermodal solutions) and in terms of sustainability (”slow mobility”, with low environmental impact, etc.).

The cornerstones of the local area development model described above require process elements to implement a successful strategy.

The aggregation of stakeholders must be centered around an action plan that fulfills a number of mandatory strategic programming criteria (definition of priorities and strategic goals; division of actions into three aspects: economic, social and urban planning-local area, with project approaches and initiatives categorized on the basis of these three macro-areas; definition of measurable and highly practical goals).

Like other local administration reform processes, the creation of Metropolitan Cities raises a number of issues regarding local governance. As second-level entities, Metropolitan Cities today must interact with various institutions, both public and private, as well as a range of local stakeholders. Their success will depend, therefore, on the ability to guarantee a constructive dialogue with the various forms of government, and on the ways of maintaining relations with three different groups:

  • Private individuals, businesses and society as a whole (including universities, research centers, associations, non-profit organizations and other groups not directly involved in local governance). In the foreign experiences analyzed, involvement of the productive system and associations is often approached through work-related multi-stakeholder platforms or non-profit associates with the goal of highlighting needs and requests, and gathering strategies and guidelines of businesses and individuals.
  • Public institutions for local administration, and in particular the entities immediately above (regions) and below (municipalities). On this level, the cooperative models adopted throughout the world range from informal agreements among local municipalities that coordinate their actions around locally-oriented goals and strategies, to the creation of governance bodies, including specially-created forms of collaboration for specific projects, or tied to issues/events that are strategically-important for the area or the nation and its economy.
  • The other neighboring Metropolitan Cities and non-metropolitan areas. Around the world, relations with the latter involve the creation of collaborative schemes (often supported by flexible governance approaches), the sharing of local assets, infrastructure, competencies and know-how, or projects with major economic, social or cultural impact.

And finally, to ensure that the national Metropolitan Cities project does not remain purely theoretical, or is only partially implemented (thus compromising the final result in terms of economic benefits, positive spin-offs and solidity of governance and strategic planning), a number of “accelerating factors” should be planned and activated in support of the implementation phase, including: the building of a strong metropolitan identity, the creation of metropolitan landmarks and iconic elements with which all individuals in the metropolitan area can identify, and the launching of flagship projects.

These projects (major events or function-related actions, including highly-operational ones) can produce tangible benefits for individuals and businesses and contribute to enhancing metropolitan awareness and image.

Start-City_Figure-2_Metropolitan-City-development-strategy-drivers-768x419However, to be successful, this process must be motivated by speedy realization (i.e., ability to implement development strategies within a given time frame, respecting deadlines and in the shortest amount of time possible) and by continuity of action over the long-term, extending beyond the terms of office of individual administrations, thus meeting the mission and needs of the metropolitan area and its stakeholders (which extend over a medium-to-long-term period).

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br

Proposals to Channel Funds to Small & Mid-Sized Companies

Em 2014 o Governo italiano desenhou uma política de incentivo ao investimento e crescimento das pequenas e médias empresas, que formam a base da economia daquele país. A Ambrosetti gerou há algumas semanas um documento de contribuição a este esforço. No Brasil, o BNDES classifica empresas que faturam até R$ 16 MM por ano como pequenas e as que faturam entre esse valor e R$ 90 MM / ano como médias. Elas representam mais da metade do PIB e da geração de emprego e seu crescimento é crítico para o nosso desenvolvimento. Algumas das ideias geradas na Europa podem ser úteis ao Brasil


In 2014 the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Ministry for Economic Development and the Bank of Italy launched the “Finance for growth” mission to increase the tools to improve access to finance for enterprises, especially SMEs, hence overcome the difficulties currently preventing the relaunching of investments. The inspiring criteria that guided the Government to achieve this objective were:

  • Increasing the supply of finance in an attempt to reduce Italy’s bank-centered entrepreneurial system by introducing both new players and complementary tools as opposed to the banking sector as well as measures that promote the capitalization of enterprises;
  • Stimulate the demand for finance (promoting development projects) that remains the principal precondition to return to growth.

The first pillar contains tools such as Mini Bonds, tax reliefs to facilitate the inflow of foreign non-banking investments, new credit players such as insurance companies, tax deductibility of a notional yield on capital contributions from the taxable amount. These measures are of a systemic nature and aim at modernizing finance for enterprise growth.

996619_609762789076047_395606141_nThe second main area of action, relating to stimulating demand for finance, concerned, for example, tax benefits for tangible investment and investments in R&D, as well as tax reliefs on revenues from licenses and patents. These measures move in the right direction: more modern finance and boost for investments.

This research intends to define further proposals that can lay the foundations to accelerate the growth of Italian SMEs and provide them with support by identifying new flows of finance to sustain development or trying to mitigate certain critical issues that characterize our entrepreneurial system. An initial consideration stems from the assumption that a significant part of the capital invested by Italian enterprises is represented by real estate assets (land and buildings) used for production purposes. Suffice it to say that the book value of these investments for Italian corporations exceeds € 350 billion.

One of the possible avenues to attract new capitals to fund development projects consists in unlocking the real estate element through an ad hoc fund. This assumption envisages:

  • The transfer to the fund of one or more owned operating premises at a market value that tends to be lower than the book value;
  • Part of the consideration of the transfer will be used to repay part of the loan, whilst the remainder will be invested in new projects;
  • The transferring companies will pay a lease rental to the fund for using the operating assets.

Therefore, basically, enterprises free capital to finance new investments and increase costs in the Income statement as a result of the lease rentals paid. A simulation was performed to estimate the possible impact on enterprises potentially involved in the initiative and the size of the fund granting the use of the real estate assets.

CaixaThe enterprises selected for the simulation were those potentially searching for new finance yet unable to get access to bank loans, which might be interested in this initiative. Overall, approximately 700 enterprises might be interested in transferring assets for about € 3.8 billion  (the size of the fund), with potential reinvestments in the production system of approximately € 2 billion thereby creating new employment for more than 10,000 units. These are significant impacts that, with other measures, could strengthen the growth of Italian SMEs.

Empresa média 1A second area of action that deserves due consideration is the small average size of Italian enterprises, a critical issue that has been addressed many times with the aim of finding a solution. Small enterprises have structural weaknesses that often prevent them from developing the competitive edge required to face market competition. Figures show that, on average, larger enterprises perform better and are more financially sound.

This is also confirmed by a comparison with the other European countries like France, Germany, Spain and the UK.

Basically, large enterprises are better braced to address market challenges:

  • They can easily access alternative investment channels in addition to the traditional banking ones;
  • They have greater investment capacities that enable them to embark on effective R&D programmes, internationalization plans, development of new channels;
  • Are better at attracting valuable human resources.

Growth in size thus represents one of the main objectives that we should pursue. A benchmark analysis conducted on some European countries shows that Italian legislation represents a best practice as regards incentives to business combinations. Other possible measures focusing on tax benefits to help business combinations were formulated, well aware of the fact that they are not the “triggering” event of the transaction. Only a sound and shared industrial project can lead to the creation of a business combination. A simulation was performed to evaluate the potential impact of the business combinations stimulated by these measures:

  • Approximately 8,000 companies involved;
  • New investments of approximately € 5.4 billion
  • More employees for 40 thousand units

One last consideration regards the manner of financing an extraordinary transaction such as an acquisition. Given their significant relevance and risk profile, business combinations can hardly be sustained by bank loans; likewise, equity financing might give rise to unwanted implications (dilution, entry of a third party in the company, etc.).

hybrid-fundHybrid forms of debt are already available, such as mezzanine finance, that for their characteristics fall between bank loans and risk capital. These financing instruments should be known and spread by both enterprises and operators as they are basically a form of “cheap” equity (they are subordinate to bank loans and the required return is lower than that required by equity, as they remain preferential compared to the latter).

Therefore, all the stakeholders and Governmental Institutions should take steps to spread and promote this kind of instruments depicting them as an opportunity and not as a debt that is more expensive than bank credit.

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br

Sua empresa ainda contrata consultores?

Consultoria tem sido a minha vida há 35 anos. Já prestei serviços no Brasil, alguns países da América Latina, EUA e África. Tive a oportunidade de atender dezenas de clientes europeus e asiáticos. Fui funcionário de multinacional, mantive um escritório independente por 20 anos e hoje minha consultoria está associada a um grupo europeu que tem uma filosofia de trabalho bastante diferente.

Empresas chamam consultores por diversas razões: opinião independente, resolver problemas excessivamente complexos, investigar o estado da arte, selecionar a melhor solução técnica, desenhar programas de mudança cultural, reestruturar a empresa, etc. Essas necessidades sempre existiram e continuarão a existir. Então porque as grandes consultorias tem sido  criticadas?

Há anos eu percebo que toda consultoria aplica apenas a solução que ela tem (a chamada “metodologia”) e muitas vezes o problema do cliente não é resolvido. Consultorias despendem muito tempo e energia desenvolvendo novas metodologias a partir do que elas entendem sejam as necessidades futuras do mercado. Qual mercado? o eixo norte: Europa – EUA. Os mesmos métodos são utilizados nos demais mercados na suposição que sejam igualmente adequados. Em minha opinião, não são.

8840141-CULTURE-Magnifying-glass-over-background-with-different-association-terms-Vector-illustration--Stock-VectorAspectos como o background cultural de cada país, suas relações sociais, os hábitos e costumes, a estrutura de poder na empresa ou até mesmo a forma como cada problema se manifesta muda substancialmente de um lugar para outro. No início dos anos 90 eu fiz um mestrado internacional em Boston. Minha classe tinha 66 pessoas vindas de 25 países. O método era case discussion. Era impressionante as visões completamente diferentes que cada aluno tinha do mesmo problema. Lembro de um caso onde para mim o problema era de processo. Um americano entendia que era uma falha nas regras de governança. Um nigeriano dizia que “obviamente” era falta de informação. E os orientais afirmavam convictamente que faltava um chefe que ditasse o que tinha de ser feito. Traga isso para a vida real e uma consultoria estaria tentando resolver o tal problema usando a mesma metodologia no mundo todo, independentemente de como a sociedade local o avalia.

jeitinho_brasileiroA América Latina tem traços culturais próprios. Somos sociedades tolerantes com a mentira o que faz com que desconfiemos das promessas. O latino não acredita no poder público e nem na justiça fazendo com as relações de confiança se sobreponham ao currículo profissional. A indisciplina e o desrespeito generalizado às regras são uma constante em nossa cultura, fazendo com que o improviso e as soluções paliativas se tornem parte do dia a dia. Brasileiros são interpretativos ao invés de literais. As regras não são aceitas da forma como estão escritas e sim entendidas de acordo com o código próprio de cada pessoa. Esse é o contexto que explica porque as metodologias consultivas estrangeiras, criadas para outro ambiente cultural e empresarial, tem sucesso limitado no nosso mundo corporativo

networkingA The European House – Ambrosetti, empresa com a qual nos associamos, tem uma filosofia de trabalho que a afasta desse modelo convencional. Primeiro por ser uma empresa latina. O ambiente cultural italiano é muito semelhante ao brasileiro, principalmente nos aspectos listados acima. A abordagem proposta pela Ambrosetti está perfeitamente alinhada a este padrão cultural e comportamental latino. O segundo aspecto é que o foco de toda atividade é o ser humano. O componente técnico obviamente não é desprezado mas há o reconhecimento de que competência técnica é mais fácil de se obter do que a capacidade de se gerenciar um universo humano cada vez mais multifacetado, díspar e específico de cada empresa e cada país. Um terceiro fator é a interessante percepção de que não se ensina gestão a líderes. Você os municia com boa e abundante informação e provê network de alto nível, a oportunidade dele expandir a rede de relacionamentos relevante para si e sua empresa. O restante o líder faz sozinho.

Esses três elementos mudam totalmente a natureza da relação cliente-consultor: ao invés do consultor provedor de soluções gerenciais temos as pessoas no centro dos holofotes e o consultor provendo condições para que elas resolvam seus próprios problemas, com um aporte apenas suplementar de recomendações e soluções técnicas.

Pela primeira vez em décadas eu sinto que disponho de uma forma realmente correta de ajudar as empresas e entidades que nos procuram a enfrentar seus desafios.

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br

Brexit: the last drop of a perfect storm

A The European House – Ambrosetti mantém o Observatório da Europa, um projeto interno que analisa e acompanha os principais eventos no continente. O tema do momento é o Brexit. O texto abaixo é o extrato de um relatório mais completo produzido assim que o referendo foi concluído


The “perfect storm” that threatens the EU:

  • (2008) Financial and debt crisis: declining US real estate prices triggered a bubble burst. Markets loose confidence in indebted EU countries, which borrowing rates hike. In May 2010 Greece receives the first bailout.
  • (2011) International security crisis: hopes of a democratising Middle East faded away. Russia annexated Crimea following turmoil in Ukraine. Civil war broke out in Syria. ISIS gained momentum.
  • (2015) Terrorism crisis: Charlie Hedbo is hit by a gunned commando. Later,  Paris is again hit by attacks. Other attacks in Bruxelles hold the EU hostage of fear
  • (2015) Migrant Crisis: an EU hit by unemployment and discontent is flooded with over 1 million migrants. Hospitality prevails, but social unrest mounts
  • (2016) Brexit: unexpected ballot results set the UK out of the EU. Worries that this might be the first step in the break-up of the whole Union

Brexit could follow different paces…

  • FAST BREXIT: favoured by EU institutions and Member States. As claimed by President Juncker, “out is out” and Brexit can’t be the policy focus of EU institutions in coming years
  • SLOW BREXIT: favoured by UK leadership. UK already stated that it won’t trigger article 50 TEU: elections must be held first (at least in October 2016)
  • NO BREXIT. Possible scenarios (a) Upcoming elections in October lead to a strong win for a pro-EU candidate, who bypass the not-legally binding Brexit referendum (b) Scotland blocks Brexit: art. 29 of the Scotland Act of 1998 abides the Scottish Parliament to comply with EU legislation, which might thus have a veto power over Brexit (same applies to Northern Ireland)

… following three possible paths

  1. Regain complete control over national sovereignty: The UK becomes a separated market, without freedom of movement of people, capital and  goods, no sort of political and military cooperation (Extremely unlikely scenario)
  2. An EFTA-like cooperation between the UK and the EU-27: UK would still be part of the common market with a minor role in the decision process; special provisions to Schengen Treaty might be negotiated; foreign policy and judiciary cooperation scaled down (Likely scenario)
  3. A “symbolic” Brexit: UK refuses to play a role in the political process over the EU, but still maintains the previous status quo concerning the common market and freedom of movement (Unexpected scenario)

The potential negative impacts of Brexit over Europe are worrying…

  • Loss of confidence in the EU as a political body
  • Market uncertainty
  • Financial Instability
  • Political instability
  • Geo-economic security

…But there might also be a bright side:

  • The future does not seem so dark after all: The EU, UK and markets realise that it was an “un-happy marriage” doomed to end; Brexit does not affect general confidence (divorce by mutal consent)
  • A political push forward: The EU finds it way for a unified economic governance, stimulating growth and investment; The UK transition goes smoothly, restoring social peace and welfare
  • Financial system recovers: A unified EU manages to definitively heal the financial system; liquidity is poured into the real economy, confidence is restored: the lost decade is over
  • Political stability and inclusiveness: Major EU countries find themselves more cohesive than ever before, successfully managing to deepen economic and political integration
  • Geo-economic security: A more unified EU can exercise a positive effect in terms of peace and welfare on bordering regions

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa voltada para assuntos gerenciais e estratégicos com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br

The Shakespearian Dilemma of European Companies: To Be Small Or To Be Large?

O texto a seguir é um extrato da apresentação feita pelo presidente da TEH Ambrosetti, Valerio de Molli, na abertura da edição 2016 do workshop “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance”, na Italia. Embora focado no ambiente de negócios europeu (e italiano em particular), ele contém uma série de ideias e conceitos validos também para o Brasil, que precisa urgentemente aumentar e aperfeiçoar seu apoio às empresas de médio porte. O artigo original está disponivel em italiano, bastando nos solicitar através do email contato@dpontod.com.br


The last months have been marked by numerous signs of uncertainty on both a geopolitical and economic level, and there is no indication that these will diminish. Let me mention at least seven:

  1. The rampant threat of terrorism which causes the deaths of innocent people throughout the world. Europe is also the victim of the unforeseeable nature of these attacks. Between 2015 and 2016, in particular, there has been an intensification of this phenomenon with unacceptable loss of human life, including children.
  2. In 2015, the number of immigrants arriving in the European Union has exploded, also as a result of the crisis in Syria, exceeding 4 million, four times the number in 2014. It is the highest migratory flow since the second world war to-date. A recent united nations report shows that 60 million people including refugees, those seeking asylum and those who have lost their homes, create a state-less population in the world.
  3. In June 23rd, Great Britain chose to leave the European Union which is a confirmation that Europe is still very distant from a process of political and social cohesion, and giving credence to the view of Otto von Bismarck that “Europe is a ship of fools”.
  4. For 2016, the European Central Bank (ECB) has confirmed its aggressive, expansionary monetary policy and, in fact, has “shot its wad” in terms of monetary policy. Nothing more can be done. The “aspirin” has run out. Let’s hope the headache passes soon.
  5. The FED and fed and ECB budgets have never been so bloated (since 2008, up 3.5 trillion dollars and up 2.5 trillion euros, respectively) and, in Europe, over 1 trillion euros of liquidity is circulating.
  6. This past February 11th, the price of oil hit its lowest point since 2003, bouncing 47% in four weeks. Today, this instability and unpredictability makes it difficult for all operators to plan investment and business activity.
  7. The global economy entered 2016 with less impetus than expected and the estimates for growth have been revised downwards a number of times by the main monitoring bodies. According to the OECD, for 2016, estimates for growth worldwide are around 0%, down 3.3% from the previous estimate.

European economies need to meet two important goals in the direction of growth and bolstering small and medium-sized enterprises: a more modern financing policy and stimulus for investment. This scenario raises a question: is having a small company really so good, or is it always a “disaster”?

  • Italy has 403,000 small and medium-sized manufacturing companies. As per comparison, France has 207,000, Germany 204,000, Spain 161,000 and the United Kingdom 124,000 companies. While on one hand this undoubtedly represents a point-of-strength, on the other it cannot be denied that the question of “size” impacts on growth.
  • Large companies have enhanced performance and greater financial stability. On average, large companies invest 2.8% of their billings, compared to 1.9% in small companies, and they have a capacity to generate value, measured as the ratio between Ebitda and billings, equal to 9.7%, compared with 7.2% in small companies. In addition, large companies:
  • Have easier access to financing channels that are alternatives to banks.
  • They can support R&D programs for internationalization and growth that are more effective.
  • They are able to attract more and better qualified human resources.

In other words, they are more competitive.

  • A significant part of the capital invested by Italian companies is tied up in property assets (land and buildings). The book value of these assets for joint-stock companies is over 350 billion euros.
  • On an international level, only 21% of the financing sources of Italian companies are equity, behind every other large country in Europe except Spain (17%).
  • The bank-centrism of Italian companies (793 billion euros in bank loans in 2015) is extremely high, with 93% of corporate financial debt held by banks, compared with 77% in the United Kingdom and one-third in the USA.
  • In Italy, the number of companies involved in aggregations is among the lowest in Europe. Only 1,505 companies in six years, compared with 8,804 in France and 7,100 in Germany

The absolute priority is for the business system to grow rapidly. And the way businessmen think and their vision must also change. Decisive action must also be taken towards a redesigning of the instruments that promote a growth in size and investments in Europe. The cost of doing nothing can be extremely high. Just in Italy, the companies in the sample we recently analyzed (between 10 and 200 million euros in billings) in serious risk of bankruptcy are 2,200, employ 162,000 people and are indebted to an amount of approximately 34 billion euros.

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa voltada para assuntos gerenciais e estratégicos com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br

 

Business and Family: two distinct aspects

Empresas familiares formam a base da economia europeia e são extremamente importantes no Brasil também. Embora não exista uma pesquisa abrangente sobre o tema, estima-se que entre 60% e 70% dos empregos em nosso país sejam gerados por empresas familiares, que respondem por 40% a 50% do PIB. Na Italia, onde fica nossa matriz, esses números são ainda mais expressivos. Há muito tempo a Europa dedica atenção especial às empresas familiares. Este artigo, escrito recentemente por Luca Petroletti, um dos partners da Ambrosetti, apresenta aspectos muito interessantes da realidade europeia que podem servir como referencial para o Brasil. O artigo original está também disponivel em italiano, bastando nos solicitar através do email contato@dpontod.com.br


The family business is the model that most closely reflects the cultural orientation of Italian business which is famous throughout the world for being creative, tenacious, hard-working and quality-oriented. In Italy:

  • Between 80-90% of all companies are family-owned;
  • as are over 40% of the 300 largest companies.

familybusinessesThese are the highest percentages in Europe. Overall, Italian family-run businesses number about 5 million and, also taking into consideration the smaller companies, contribute 80% of Gross Domestic Product, making them a cornerstone of the country’s economy. Therefore, when family-run businesses function well, the entire country benefits.

At the basis of all this is the fact that family and business are two distinct aspects based on completely different values:

  • Solidarity and protection being the first and
  • Risk, competition and meritocracy the second.

In family businesses these two aspects are seen in structural areas that overlap and often risk triggering conflict, tension and problematic situations.

The knotty problem of generational succession

According to a report based on research conducted by the European Commission, less than 33% of companies on the continent are able to maintain operations and ownership following the transition from the first to the second generation, and only 15% are able to assure continuity following passage from the second to the third.

shutterstock_67518559-300x300Over the next ten years, a million small- and medium-sized companies will have to face this phase—more or less 100,000 every year—and it is calculated that, without adequate transitional planning, at least half are destined to disappear.

Therefore, family businesses must adopt the right mechanisms to allow them to optimize co-existence and plan continuity in order to confidently face the delicate phase of generational succession.

A “custom-fit” approach

It was back in the late 1980s that The European House – Ambrosetti perceived the need to assure effective solutions to the problems of family-run businesses.

family-business-succession-planningSince then, it has been involved in several hundred concrete cases in many different corporate situations and with different families and this has allowed the firm to gain unparalleled experience in managing family business relations.

Our professional services, tailor-made to the specific needs of each client, are:

  • Agreement/Statute among members of the family. This involves a system of shared rules, criteria and mechanisms through which family members establish the “rules of the game” and their behavior towards the company in order to safeguard common interests and the greater good. The method by which these delicate issues are taken on is of fundamental importance and represents one of the most unique aspects of our approach.
  • Working alongside younger family members during their professional development in order to maximize their potential for self-realization.
  • Developing within family members knowledge and skills to effectively carry out the role of partner and member of the board of directors.
  • Creating and implementing bodies and mechanisms to promote dialogue and positive coexistence (family councils, etc.).
  • Patrimonial strategy. The European House-Ambrosetti provides support to clients in defining and applying a strategy appropriate to the quality of life of family members, their economic needs, control of the company and its governance and the risk level of investments and related balancing requirements.

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa voltada para assuntos gerenciais e estratégicos com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br