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Brexit: the last drop of a perfect storm

A The European House – Ambrosetti mantém o Observatório da Europa, um projeto interno que analisa e acompanha os principais eventos no continente. O tema do momento é o Brexit. O texto abaixo é o extrato de um relatório mais completo produzido assim que o referendo foi concluído

The “perfect storm” that threatens the EU:

  • (2008) Financial and debt crisis: declining US real estate prices triggered a bubble burst. Markets loose confidence in indebted EU countries, which borrowing rates hike. In May 2010 Greece receives the first bailout.
  • (2011) International security crisis: hopes of a democratising Middle East faded away. Russia annexated Crimea following turmoil in Ukraine. Civil war broke out in Syria. ISIS gained momentum.
  • (2015) Terrorism crisis: Charlie Hedbo is hit by a gunned commando. Later,  Paris is again hit by attacks. Other attacks in Bruxelles hold the EU hostage of fear
  • (2015) Migrant Crisis: an EU hit by unemployment and discontent is flooded with over 1 million migrants. Hospitality prevails, but social unrest mounts
  • (2016) Brexit: unexpected ballot results set the UK out of the EU. Worries that this might be the first step in the break-up of the whole Union

Brexit could follow different paces…

  • FAST BREXIT: favoured by EU institutions and Member States. As claimed by President Juncker, “out is out” and Brexit can’t be the policy focus of EU institutions in coming years
  • SLOW BREXIT: favoured by UK leadership. UK already stated that it won’t trigger article 50 TEU: elections must be held first (at least in October 2016)
  • NO BREXIT. Possible scenarios (a) Upcoming elections in October lead to a strong win for a pro-EU candidate, who bypass the not-legally binding Brexit referendum (b) Scotland blocks Brexit: art. 29 of the Scotland Act of 1998 abides the Scottish Parliament to comply with EU legislation, which might thus have a veto power over Brexit (same applies to Northern Ireland)

… following three possible paths

  1. Regain complete control over national sovereignty: The UK becomes a separated market, without freedom of movement of people, capital and  goods, no sort of political and military cooperation (Extremely unlikely scenario)
  2. An EFTA-like cooperation between the UK and the EU-27: UK would still be part of the common market with a minor role in the decision process; special provisions to Schengen Treaty might be negotiated; foreign policy and judiciary cooperation scaled down (Likely scenario)
  3. A “symbolic” Brexit: UK refuses to play a role in the political process over the EU, but still maintains the previous status quo concerning the common market and freedom of movement (Unexpected scenario)

The potential negative impacts of Brexit over Europe are worrying…

  • Loss of confidence in the EU as a political body
  • Market uncertainty
  • Financial Instability
  • Political instability
  • Geo-economic security

…But there might also be a bright side:

  • The future does not seem so dark after all: The EU, UK and markets realise that it was an “un-happy marriage” doomed to end; Brexit does not affect general confidence (divorce by mutal consent)
  • A political push forward: The EU finds it way for a unified economic governance, stimulating growth and investment; The UK transition goes smoothly, restoring social peace and welfare
  • Financial system recovers: A unified EU manages to definitively heal the financial system; liquidity is poured into the real economy, confidence is restored: the lost decade is over
  • Political stability and inclusiveness: Major EU countries find themselves more cohesive than ever before, successfully managing to deepen economic and political integration
  • Geo-economic security: A more unified EU can exercise a positive effect in terms of peace and welfare on bordering regions

A D.D Consultoria é uma empresa voltada para assuntos gerenciais e estratégicos com 21 anos de existência. Nossa carteira de clientes inclui empresas de médio e grande portes. Somos associados à The European House – Ambrosetti (www.ambrosetti.eu). Através da Ambrosetti oferecemos suporte consultivo no mundo todo além de um vasto portfolio de serviços em educação executiva, eventos corporativos e projetos a governo e empresas privadas. Consulte-nos em contato@dpontod.com.br


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Publicado em 12/07/2016 por em Economia.
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